Tom Tiddler's Island, стр. 45
Northfleet looked at him keenly.
“You’re not trying to draw me. I quite see that. And I’m not going to be drawn, in any case. My employer is Lord Knows Who—a recent creation, not in the Peerages yet. Now I’ll put the thing in general terms, just to correct your perspective a bit. Suppose—as you say—that Leven’s process requires an expensive plant. Say, for instance, that it needs a radioactive material at some stage or other. Leven’s not a rich man, as I’ve told you. His spare cash wouldn’t go far in buying any of the really strongly radioactive stuffs. Assume, then, that he has managed to scrape up a small quantity—enough for transmutation on a very moderate scale. In passing, I’m quite sure that he’s not doing it in that way; I’m merely giving you a concrete illustration.”
“Right,” Colin agreed. “I see your point. Go on.”
“Under such conditions, Leven could turn out a very modest supply of his gold. As you say: what’s the harm in that? None whatever, so long as things remain at this stage. But if Leven can turn out a small supply with his present plant, he could obviously turn out a bigger supply with a bigger plant. Or if somebody with big resources got hold of Leven’s secret, the same thing would happen. If you can make a pound of gold economically, it’s not likely that you’d be unable to turn out a ton of it at a profit if you extend your plant sufficiently. Suppose Leven or anyone else were put in a position to turn out gold by the ton instead of by the ounce, what results would follow? Just think that over.”
“Slump in the Kaffir market,” said Colin sapiently. “Drop in all gold-mining shares. Grass growing in the streets of Johannesburg and all that sort of thing. Um! Yes, I suppose it would be disturbing.
“Because the price of gold would drop, once the secret leaked out? And what about all the gold deposits that the nations are holding in their Treasuries?”
Colin began to open his eyes as these aspects of the matter dawned upon him.
“Zooks! This begins to look serious. It does, really. I hadn’t seen it on quite that scale. International problem, eh? And half the governments in the world wondering where they stand? Y’know, Northfleet, this is a bit disturbing, when you come to look at it.”
“Waking up, are you?” Northfleet said cynically. “Better wire your stockbroker to sell your Rand shares, if it’s as bad as all that. I’ll give you a tip for your next investment. If gold went out, what metal would take its place?”
“Silver?”
“And what about the countries on a silver basis? How would they be affected?”
“Meaning that silver would appreciate when gold dropped out, and so countries with a silver coinage would stand to gain?”
“I’m no economist,” Northfleet pointed out. “I’m just suggesting problems. I don’t profess to solve them for you. But if silver were to appreciate in value, who’d stand to gain by it? The Americas between them produce two-thirds of the world output of silver. Mexico alone represents a third of the silver output of the globe. What sort of country’s Mexico, Trent?”
“A bit unsettled, according to my newspaper.”
“Hardly good for the world if one-third of its total supply of the most precious currency-metal came from an unstable country. Somebody would have to put that right, wouldn’t they? A little war on somebody’s hands, perhaps? See, the horizons opening up a bit?” Colin turned in his seat and looked up at the rock- and heather-strewn slopes of the island. Then he swung round again and gazed at the shore, where the fulmar petrels were going about their little affairs or sitting placidly, two by two, on the shelves of rock. It seemed an incongruous setting for a chemical process which, if Northfleet were right, might shake the world and give a new tilt to human affairs.
“Funny to think that an acre or two of an islet like Ruff a should hold all that,” he reflected aloud in a faintly awed tone.
“Oh, I don’t say it’s likely to come to that,” Northfleet pointed out. “I merely drew a pretty picture for you, to show you some of the possibilities behind gold-making. Lots of things might happen before it got to that stage. For instance, some people might feel justified in calling a halt by pretty drastic methods applied to Leven & Co. Say a treatment with lead pills—the nickel-coated brand, or something of that sort. Or, again, Leven might join up with somebody who could provide him with the sinews of war, so that his gold-making plant could be extended immensely and his output vastly increased.”
“I say, you know,” Colin protested, “this is a bit of a nightmare. You don’t really think all this is likely to happen?”
Northfleet shrugged his shoulders in a noncommittal fashion.
“I started by saying: ‘Suppose . . .” An economist would give you worse goose-flesh on the subject, I dare say.”
“I’m just trying to think out who would be mainly affected by somebody flooding the market with gold,” Colin said tentatively. “The South African mines, obviously; the bullion dealers; the banks, of course; the big financiers, too; and any governments that have stuck to the gold standard. Jove! That’s a pretty formidable lot.”
“And the governments that are off the gold standard as well,” Northfleet pointed out. “The whole international finance situation would be shaken up.”
“And I suppose your Lord Knows Who amongst them?” said Colin ironically. He glanced at his watch and added: “Well, time’s getting on. I’d better be pushing along now.”
Northfleet made no attempt to detain him.
As Colin climbed the ridge which separated the shieling from Wester Voe he felt like a man who has just come to the